Overpriced Vehicles

[cornet 37]

I’ve been on the server for quite a while and understand the reasoning as to why certain weapons/gear are expensive but have never been able to get around paying for overpriced vehicles such as the Ghosthawk. Is there any actual value to them asides their rarity or is it essentially just for bragging rights. Just wondering peoples opinions on the subject because aircrafts are my weakest in my spending. Thank you. 

[MAV 1617]

well - you actually cant buy a ghosthawk in game, you can only get them from doing a blackwater and even then its 'supposedly' a 1% chance of getting, which makes them incredibly rare and dangerous if you have one. So, the market dictates the price of these items, since there aren't many of them out there and a lot of people want to buy them...they will priced high...if someone pays 50mil for a ghosthawk (which apparently someone did) then anyone else selling is going to want that type of money...

[Savage 111]

24 minutes ago, MAVE2ICK said:

well - you actually cant buy a ghosthawk in game, you can only get them from doing a blackwater and even then its 'supposedly' a 1% chance of getting, which makes them incredibly rare and dangerous if you have one. So, the market dictates the price of these items, since there aren't many of them out there and a lot of people want to buy them...they will priced high...if someone pays 50mil for a ghosthawk (which apparently someone did) then anyone else selling is going to want that type of money...

Jesse made it a 50% chance because everyone is getting them 

[MAV 1617]

2 minutes ago, Savage said:

Jesse made it a 50% chance because everyone is getting them 

hence the quotes around supposedly...lol...

[cornet 37]

47 minutes ago, MAVE2ICK said:

well - you actually cant buy a ghosthawk in game, you can only get them from doing a blackwater and even then its 'supposedly' a 1% chance of getting, which makes them incredibly rare and dangerous if you have one. So, the market dictates the price of these items, since there aren't many of them out there and a lot of people want to buy them...they will priced high...if someone pays 50mil for a ghosthawk (which apparently someone did) then anyone else selling is going to want that type of money...

I guess when you bring up the percentages and factors it makes perfect sense for someone who wants to own one. Thank you for the clarification. 

[Guest]

On 12/5/2017 at 10:38 AM, MAVE2ICK said:

well - you actually cant buy a ghosthawk in game, you can only get them from doing a blackwater and even then its 'supposedly' a 1% chance of getting, which makes them incredibly rare and dangerous if you have one. So, the market dictates the price of these items, since there aren't many of them out there and a lot of people want to buy them...they will priced high...if someone pays 50mil for a ghosthawk (which apparently someone did) then anyone else selling is going to want that type of money...

 

On 12/5/2017 at 11:03 AM, Savage said:

Jesse made it a 50% chance because everyone is getting them 

Decided to run the numbers on what the chances are based on current values and compare to the logs since I am a no life degenerate and I remembered reading this earlier this month.

 

Fun facts: The odds you will receive an Armed Aerial Vehicle from a BW completion is 11.8% if 15+ cops are on.

The observed results of completed BW's since 7/21/2017 is that 12.3% of completed BW's have produced an Armed Aerial Vehicle. (BW came out Oct 2016 but we didn't start logging it till 7/21/2017)

 

Raw numbers from 7/21/2017 to 12/14/2017:

Total BWs: 238

Total Completed: 105

Total Stopped by Cops: 133

Aerial vehicles spawned: 13

 

We can find some other percentages out of this.

Chance you will succeed in opening the BW Vault: 44.1%

Effective chance you would get an aerial vehicle, taking into account the chances of success/failure: 5.46%

 

 

 

[Savage 111]

43 minutes ago, McDili said:

 

Decided to run the numbers on what the chances are based on current values and compare to the logs since I am a no life degenerate and I remembered reading this earlier this month.

 

Fun facts: The odds you will receive an Armed Aerial Vehicle from a BW completion is 11.8% if 15+ cops are on.

The observed results of completed BW's since 7/21/2017 is that 12.3% of completed BW's have produced an Armed Aerial Vehicle. (BW came out Oct 2016 but we didn't start logging it till 7/21/2017)

 

Raw numbers from 7/21/2017 to 12/14/2017:

Total BWs: 238

Total Completed: 105

Total Stopped by Cops: 133

Aerial vehicles spawned: 13

 

We can find some other percentages out of this.

Chance you will succeed in opening the BW Vault: 44.1%

Effective chance you would get an aerial vehicle, taking into account the chances of success/failure: 5.46%

 

 

 

How long did it take to do the mathematics

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, Savage said:

How long did it take to do the mathematics

Longest part was just gathering the logs, had to run multiple searches for each server. Took bout a half hour.

math to find percentage is a snap if you have a calculator and know the formula

[Hydra 307]

8 minutes ago, McDili said:

Longest part was just gathering the logs, had to run multiple searches for each server. Took bout a half hour.

math to find percentage is a snap if you have a calculator and know the formula

I bet more than 50% of the blackwaters are by prime

[cornet 37]

1 hour ago, McDili said:

 

Decided to run the numbers on what the chances are based on current values and compare to the logs since I am a no life degenerate and I remembered reading this earlier this month.

 

Fun facts: The odds you will receive an Armed Aerial Vehicle from a BW completion is 11.8% if 15+ cops are on.

The observed results of completed BW's since 7/21/2017 is that 12.3% of completed BW's have produced an Armed Aerial Vehicle. (BW came out Oct 2016 but we didn't start logging it till 7/21/2017)

 

Raw numbers from 7/21/2017 to 12/14/2017:

Total BWs: 238

Total Completed: 105

Total Stopped by Cops: 133

Aerial vehicles spawned: 13

 

We can find some other percentages out of this.

Chance you will succeed in opening the BW Vault: 44.1%

Effective chance you would get an aerial vehicle, taking into account the chances of success/failure: 5.46%

 

 

 

Thank you for the insight.  

[Airborne 630]

Supply and demand is a beautiful thing

[Dangus 629]

1 hour ago, McDili said:

Effective chance you would get an aerial vehicle, taking into account the chances of success/failure: 5.46%

Isn't that also accounting for more than 15 cops online too? If not, that's a hella fucking high number. If so, that's still hella high.

[Savage 111]

1 hour ago, McDili said:

Longest part was just gathering the logs, had to run multiple searches for each server. Took bout a half hour.

math to find percentage is a snap if you have a calculator and know the formula

That's called dedication 

[Guest]

7 hours ago, DANGUSDEAN said:

Isn't that also accounting for more than 15 cops online too? If not, that's a hella fucking high number. If so, that's still hella high.

Right it's based on the chances of 15+ cops online bonus. But at the same time, the 44.1% success chance is just a global percentage of completed BW's since 7/21 vs Stopped BW's.

If I had the extra time I could find out the percentage of success for BW's that have ended with 15+ cops on vs how many have stopped with 15+ cops on. I highly doubt the 44.1% number stands firm if you only take into account the BW's where 15+ cops were present. I do recall seeing that less than 25% of BW's are completed with 15+ cops online, and I distinctly remember seeing a lot more BW's were stopped by 15+ cops than were completed with 15+.

Reasonably it would be safe to assume that with 15+ cops online your success chance is significantly reduced which would also reduced your effective chance at getting an aerial vehicle.

In any case 5.46% is not something I would consider to be "Too high" by any stretch.

[RAYRAY 273]

9 hours ago, McDili said:

 

Decided to run the numbers on what the chances are based on current values and compare to the logs since I am a no life degenerate and I remembered reading this earlier this month.

 

Fun facts: The odds you will receive an Armed Aerial Vehicle from a BW completion is 11.8% if 15+ cops are on.

The observed results of completed BW's since 7/21/2017 is that 12.3% of completed BW's have produced an Armed Aerial Vehicle. (BW came out Oct 2016 but we didn't start logging it till 7/21/2017)

 

Raw numbers from 7/21/2017 to 12/14/2017:

Total BWs: 238

Total Completed: 105

Total Stopped by Cops: 133

Aerial vehicles spawned: 13

 

We can find some other percentages out of this.

Chance you will succeed in opening the BW Vault: 44.1%

Effective chance you would get an aerial vehicle, taking into account the chances of success/failure: 5.46%

 

 

 

fockin nerddddddddddddd

On 12/5/2017 at 12:03 PM, Savage said:

Jesse made it a 50% chance because everyone is getting them 

i actually hope he did