June / July fed stats

[Zahzi 3015]

Throughout both months (June 1 - July 15), 120 feds were started, and the bomb blew 53 times (44%). - pulled by @destruct

There were 3294 gold bars sold, yielding an average of 27 bars sold per started fed, and 62 per "completed" fed. This gives an average of $1.9m-4.3m per started/completed fed. - pulled from stats page

Keep in mind that on average, 237.5 bars will spawn when bomb blows.

Now, assuming that an average amount of gold spawned for all these feds, 26.2% of spawned gold was sold after a blown fed, and 11.6% of potential gold sold when a fed bomb was planted.

TLDR: 120 feds started, the amount of gold sold makes up for 11% of what would have spawned given an average spawn for each fed.

@APD is this a problem?

[LULA 2022 - PT 13 487]

It sounds low but you're not counting how much is stored in houses or sheds.

 

Also feds can be won with strats, if civs get the gold but they don't knock out AA/ think of counters once the bomb blows then of course they'll get caught.

[DeadPool 4376]

@Zahzi its time to "SNEAK" in some more towers.

[Zahzi 3015]

6 minutes ago, sploding said:

It sounds low but you're not counting how much is stored in houses or sheds.

 

Also feds can be won with strats, if civs get the gold but they don't knock out AA/ think of counters once the bomb blows then of course they'll get caught.

This is accounting for ALL gold sold June 1st - July 15th. Surely most people that store gold would have sold it by now. Also, gold isn't stored that often, surely not enough to make up more than a few % difference. Even if 25% of the gold spawned was stored and not accounted for in amount we calculated as sold, we're still looking at like <15% instead of 11.

[i win 1096]

4 minutes ago, sploding said:

It sounds low but you're not counting how much is stored in houses or sheds.

 

Also feds can be won with strats, if civs get the gold but they don't knock out AA/ think of counters once the bomb blows then of course they'll get caught.

Sounds low? Understatement of the year honestly. We stored maybe five loads of gold in 150 successful feds during our spree.

5 minutes ago, DeadPool said:

@Zahzi its time to "SNEAK" in some more towers.

Already on it brother.

[DeadPool 4376]

Just now, Mr Majestic said:

Sounds low? Understatement of the year honestly. We stored maybe five loads of gold in 150 successful feds during our spree.

Already on it brother.

nah lowkey I already have a mission file ready for months. I added towers in places where towers are needed

[Pledge 2292]

Not bad for my final tenure.

[Millennium 5799]

3 minutes ago, Mr Majestic said:

Sounds low? Understatement of the year honestly. We stored maybe five loads of gold in 150 successful feds during our spree.

Already on it brother.

I think you need some more towers. Maybe on the dome?

[Pledge 2292]

These stats aren't entirely accurate....

 

You are saying any gold lost reduces the percentage. It should be a win rate, not a gold sold rate....

 

A win is a win

[DeadPool 4376]

Just now, Pledge said:

These stats aren't entirely accurate....

 

You are saying any gold lost reduces the percentage. It should be a win rate, not a gold sold rate....

 

A win is a win

bomb blowing is not a win for civ. Gold sold is a win for civ.

[silton 4174]

8 minutes ago, Pledge said:

A win is a win

Winning a Fed but not selling the gold is like getting a chick back ya room but not getting it in. I reckon that's a fail

[Zeuse 1240]

Just get more people.

 

 

 

 

 

It's a joke stop yelling at me

[Zahzi 3015]

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Pledge said:

These stats aren't entirely accurate....

I got the data from destruct and the stats page. Which of those sources is inaccurate?

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Pledge said:

You are saying any gold lost reduces the percentage. It should be a win rate, not a gold sold rate....

 

 A win is a win

Please elaborate on your definition of a "win" at a fed from a civ perspective. Mine certainly involves selling all if not most of the gold. If I ended up selling the average of 27 bars per started fed, I'd consider that a loss. Same with the 62 for a blown fed. The fact is, close to 75% of gold is lost on average when bomb blows.

[i win 1096]

20 minutes ago, Pledge said:

These stats aren't entirely accurate....

 

You are saying any gold lost reduces the percentage. It should be a win rate, not a gold sold rate....

 

A win is a win

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@DeadPool is correct here. Just because the bomb blows doesn't indicate we won, far from it. Trying to manipulate the stats and only going by win rate is frankly stupid. I can see why you would do it, but you look daft for doing so - I think you're smarter than that Pledge.

No matter how you look at this, these percentages are absurdly low. You were freaking out about our win-rate two months ago, but suddenly we stop doing feds/bws and the trend does a complete 180 and everything is fine.

Also these stats came from destruct, and I'm assuming the logs. How are they not accurate? It's hard to misrepresent these stats, it's pretty simple math.

[Pledge 2292]

I'm saying if the Civilians rob the fed, the bomb blows, they get 2 trucks out, and they lose or store one and sell the other, your percentages would show that as 50%, where as that is a win for the civilians in my mind since they sold an entire truck of gold (and an even bigger win if they have stored it)

 

Thats why I like static gold sold or not gold sold and not a %

[Zahzi 3015]

Just now, Pledge said:

I'm saying if the Civilians rob the fed, the bomb blows, they get 2 trucks out, and they lose or store one and sell the other, your percentages would show that as 50%, where as that is a win for the civilians in my mind since they sold an entire truck of gold (and an even bigger win if they have stored it)

 

Thats why I like static gold sold or not gold sold and not a %

Selling 50% of the gold => 50% of a win. Makes sense to me tbh. A win isn't a binary thing, there are varying degrees of "winning" possible.

Also included in these stats, let's say 200 bars spawn, we get the trucks seized but keep 40 from our backpacks. I'd generally consider this a loss, but these numbers include it as a 20% "win".

Aside from that, the average number of gold bar sold per fed aren't looking great either (27 per plant, 62 per blow). The raw numbers are in the initial post as well as the numbers, both look pretty pathetic.

As for the storage, these stats are taken from across the whole month, so I think that for the most part, it'll be negligible. A dev could probably confirm if it really matters. However, even a large portion of bars being stored wouldn't make these numbers much less unbalanced.

I can assure you that there are very few bars stored long-term, so the vast majority of stored gold is already included in these numbers. Even a large portion of gold being stored wouldn't drag these numbers up very far.

[Pledge 2292]

I'm just interested how those other stats would turn out

[Zahzi 3015]

Just now, Pledge said:

I'm just interested how those other stats would turn out

Which other stats?

[Pledge 2292]

Just now, Zahzi said:

Which other stats?

A straight gold sold vs not gold sold, like they used to be represented

[i win 1096]

17 minutes ago, Pledge said:

I'm saying if the Civilians rob the fed, the bomb blows, they get 2 trucks out, and they lose or store one and sell the other, your percentages would show that as 50%, where as that is a win for the civilians in my mind since they sold an entire truck of gold (and an even bigger win if they have stored it)

 

Thats why I like static gold sold or not gold sold and not a %

The way you feign being this stupid to try and manipulate your argument here is hilarious Pledge. If I didn't know better I'd almost fall for it.

Just to poke fun at your last sentence. You and I both know that 27 bars on average sold still sounds just as shit as 11%. I really don't mind what number you chose.

Edited July 25, 2019 by Mr Majestic

[Pledge 2292]

2 minutes ago, Mr Majestic said:

The way you feign being this stupid to try and manipulate your argument here is hilarious Pledge. If I didn't know better I'd almost fall for it.

Just to poke fun at your last sentence. You and I both know that 27 bars on average sold still sounds just as shit as 11%. I really don't mind what number you chose.

I don't think you understand. I'm asking for a win loss percentage, not a number.

 

 

like this:

 

Feds with bomb blown AND gold sold: 25%

Feds with bomb blown: 50%

[Zahzi 3015]

Just now, Pledge said:

A straight gold sold vs not gold sold, like they used to be represented

Unfortunately, we don't have the real number spawned since that's not logged, but with an average of 237.5 bars per fed, we get:

3294 sold vs 28500 not sold (this is potential bars- like if the gold counts as spawned every plant)

3294 vs 12587 not sold (this is bars not sold if the bomb blows)

The latter case indicates that 74% of bars spawned don't make it to trader.

 

Just now, Pledge said:

I don't think you understand. I'm asking for a win loss percentage, not a number.

42% of the time, the bomb blows. 26% of the gold spawned makes it to the trader.

[Pledge 2292]

2 minutes ago, Zahzi said:

Unfortunately, we don't have the real number spawned since that's not logged, but with an average of 237.5 bars per fed, we get:

3294 sold vs 28500 not sold (this is potential bars- like if the gold counts as spawned every plant)

3294 vs 12587 not sold (this is bars not sold if the bomb blows)

The latter case indicates that 74% of bars spawned don't make it to trader.

 

42% of the time, the bomb blows. 26% of the gold spawned makes it to the trader.

But what percentage of the TIME does gold make it to the trader?

[Cutie (QT) 118]

I'm a bit confused, what correlation are you looking for Pledge? 

[Pledge 2292]

2 minutes ago, Cutie (QT) said:

I'm a bit confused, what correlation are you looking for Pledge? 

I just want the data in the same format as the past so we can compare it.

 

I love the new format of the data, and its a lot more accurate, but we have no comparison, so its hard to see what the normal level is